By Matt Stuart | Published | No Comments
Well 9-5 last week aint really that bad. I missed on Texans over Bengals, Broncos over Bills, Browns over Ravens, Saints over Vikings and I am done picking the Falcons to beat anyone as my miss Cardinals over Falcons is the one that really made me sulk away the weekend.
Well here we week 11 and we get several key divisional matchup that actually have early playoff implications tied to them. Bengals vs Ravens. Steelers vs Browns, Lions vs Bear, Jaguars vs Titans, Bills vs Jets and Seahawks vs Rams just to name a few. Ok so I named them all. Sue me.
So here are my sure fire winners. Oh yeah!
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Bengals vs Ravens (-4.5)
Burrow vs Jackson is always fun and usually close. Burrow hasn’t had as much success against the Ravens Lamar Jackson as he has against two other elite AFC QB’s in Allen and Mahomes. Burrow is just 1-4 against the Ravens when Jackson is the starting QB. But this game is really about which defense will be able to make enough plays to stop the other team’s elite quarterback. I’ll take Jackson, again, by one score.
PICK – Ravens 20 – Bengals 16
SUNDAY
((1:00 PM WINDOW}}
Steelers vs Browns (1.5)
The Steelers just seem to find a way to win and that is the mark of a team that has a good enough defense to keep them in games, they would otherwise lose. Speaking of losing, the Browns have lost Watson for the season and will now hope that Dorian Thompson-Robinson is ready to go in just his second start of his rookie career, after a brutal 3 INT performance weeks ago against the Ravens. Robinson says he has learned from that last performance and will look a lot better. Maybe he will. But he will need to be night and day different, even as the Browns will no doubt rely heavily once again on that smothering defense, if he is going to get his first career win.
PICK – Steelers 20 – Browns 17
Bears vs Lions (-7.5)
Justin Fields finds himself back under center after having missed the last four games. He will need to shake off any rust quickly as he gets the Lions on the road. This would be a tough game for the Bears to win, even if Fields had not missed the last four weeks and was playing at a consistently high level. The Lions are getting healthy at the right time and that run game looks especially dangerous with Gibbs finally getting touches and Montgomery returning to the lineup last week. Assuming the Lions do not play down to their level of competition in this game, they should have little trouble dispensing with the Bears.
PICK – Lions 27 – Bears 14
Chargers (-3) vs Packers
The Chargers are just too inconsistent to be a legitimate threat in the AFC playoff picture. Their defense has only really looked good against teams that have hapless offenses or bad quarterbacks. The Packers offense could easily fill both of those categories. Packers QB Jordan Love is not having the worst season as far as quarterbacking goes, but he has not been able to elevate a Packers offense that is just meh. Green Bay is still a tough place to stroll into and get a win, but I will take the Chargers, since this is the kind of team they have the best shot at beating.
PICK – Chargers 28 – Packers 17
Raiders vs Dolphins (-13)
The Raiders have managed to eke out two consecutive wins since firing head coach Josh McDaniels. Now they are on the road though, for the first time since McDaniels departure, and face a well rested and healthier Miami Dolphins team. While I expect the Dolphins offense to be a little sluggish coming off their bye, I do think the Raiders win streak ends here.
PICK – DOLPHINS 28 – RAIDERS 16
Giants vs Commanders (- 8.5)
This game is Sam Howell and a good Commanders offense taking on a Giants defense that is giving up more than 26 points per game (29th in the NFL) and throwing a division 2A quarterback (Tommy DeVito) out to the wolves. There really isn’t much else to be said here.
PICK – Commanders 31 – Giants 13
Cowboys ( -10.5) vs Panthers
This game had a chance to be good when the schedule was made and the thought was that the Panthers would be in the playoff hunt and Bryce Young would look like a competent quarterback. Unfortunately neither of those things are the case. The Panthers are an abysmal 1-8 and unless there is a significant injury to a Cowboys player in this game, this one will be little more than another smacking to Young’s already battered confidence.
PICK – Cowboys 34 – Panthers 10
Titans vs Jaguars (- 7)
Titans QB Will Levis will need to play much better again on the road against the Jags than he did last week against the Bucs. Levis had a promising debut to his NFL career, with a four touchdown performance against the Falcons, but it’s starting to look like that could have been the peak for Levis and perhaps there isn’t much more there. I am being a little harsh on Levis, but he will need to handle pressure a little better in this game than he did a week ago. The Jags are coming off a beatdown last week against a Niners team that was determined to get their season back on track. The Jags need to be careful that nothing lingers from that colossal letdown against San Francisco, but assuming they’ve shored it all up, this one should get the Jags back into the win column.
PICK – Jaguars – 24 – Titans 13
Cardinals vs Texans (- 6)
This is one of those games that could go either way for the Texans. Houston is banged up on both sides of the ball and will be missing several key starters. Teams favored against Arizona this season have found that the Cards are not quite the doormat they were forecasted to be before the season started. This is one of those games that could be a sloppy low scoring affair or Stroud and the Texans could steam roll the Cardinals and continue to press on. The Cardinals saw the return of Kyler Murray last week and got an impressive win over the Falcons. I do believe the Texans are the better team, but the Texans will either overcome some adversity this week or they will succumb to it.
PICK – Texans 24 – Cardinals 18
((4:00 PM WINDOW))
Buccaneers vs 49ers (- 12)
This is a game where the Niners would like to stretch their wings a bit and reassert themselves in the NFC hierarchy; especially with a pivotal three game stretch coming up, with two games against the Seahawks with a trip to Philly sandwiched in between. The Buccaneers continue to ride a stronger than expected season from Baker Mayfield, whom if you squint, almost looks like the Mayfield we saw in Cleveland years two and three. But the Niners are at home and their newest weapon on defense (Chase Young) should get to Mayfield enough times to force just enough mistakes that stifle any real threat of an upset.
PICK – Niners 27 – Bucs 17
Jets vs Bills (- 7)
Well this game suddenly looks a lot different now. Almost like the kind of Bills/Jets game that both fan bases had to suffer through for the better part of the last two decades. The Jets are treading water only because of their elite defense and the Bills no longer have a winning record, an elite offense, control their own destiny to win the AFC East or reach the playoffs, and oh yeah they fired their embattled OC Ken Dorsey earlier in the week. I would like to say the Bills use focused and controlled anger and put 50 points up and just demolish the Jets, but I see something a bit less lofty than that.
PICK – Bills 17 – Jets 10
Seahawks (-.5) vs Rams
The Rams offense has completely tanked over a messy three game losing streak, which has seen some ugly quarterbacking from both their starter, Matthew Stafford and backup Brett Rypien. Stafford is set to return to the lineup for the Rams, and I would say that’s good news, but honestly Stafford seems to just be punching a clock at this stage of his career. Geno Smith and the Seahawks survived a frenetic finish in DC a week ago and were one of five teams that managed to win on a game deciding field goal. The Seahawks really need to put away the Rams, because they have an absolutely brutal schedule of two games against the Niners, plus the Eagles and Cowboys over the next four weeks.
PICK – Seahawks 24 – Rams 20
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Vikings vs Broncos ( -2.5)
The Broncos are finally staring to look like a contender under head coach Sean Payton. The only question is do they have enough time, sitting at 4-5, to make a run. I say yes. I also see a good chance for the Broncos to press their winning streak to four games as they get set to host the Vikings on Sunday Night Football. But the Vikings rebounded from a brutal start to the season and sit at 6-4. The Vikings have the leagues longest active winning streak at five game, and have gotten two strong and surprising starts from Joshua Dobbs; who continues to play well for injured Kirk Cousins. But this game is going to be a tough test for Dobbs and the Vikings. The Broncos have turned around their season, not just because Russell Wilson and the offense are finally humming, but because that defense has moved back to respectability over the last three games. This game could hinge, though, on if Russel Wilson can continue his nice mid-season rejuvenation and whether Dobbs can avoid the costly mistakes the Broncos defense will hope they can force him into making.
PICK – Broncos 20 – Vikings 16
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Eagles vs Chiefs ( -2.5)
Monday Night games this season have been a little on the foul side for my tastes. But alas the football gods give us a classic Super Bowl rematch in Eagles at Chiefs. It’s tempting to look at what both of these offenses can bring to the game, but I am more intrigued by what the defenses can bring. Many people might not know, but the Chiefs are tied with the Niners for having allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL this season. The Eagles offense has average the third most points per game so far this season, but there defense is a middling seventieth in points allowed per game. It’s interesting, last year many people thought that if the Chiefs had a major glaring weakness it was on the defensive side of the ball. This season those thoughts have turned to whether the offense can score just enough to win. The Eagles could firmly establish themselves as Super Bowl favorites with a win on the road in KC, and Hurts and that Eagles offense are certainly capable of taxing any great to elite defense with all of their weapons. The Chiefs just seem to be rounding into that mindset of this is our time of the year. We know when they get into that mindset, there really isn’t much the league can do to stop them.
PICK – Chiefs 26 – Eagles 21
