By Matt Stuart | Published | No Comments
Last week was a complete disaster for yours truly. Only six of my picks were correct and boy did I not see C.J. Stroud’s record setting, five touchdown performance against the Bucs coming. Not only did I pick the Bucs to win, but I picked the Texans to score just 13 points and they tripled that output. Good lord what a mess. I also picked the Falcons to bounce back against a Cousin’s less Vikings, but once again that Joshua Dobbs just keeps proving the doubters wrong.
Lets see I also thought the Cowboys and Bills would come up big with much needed wins on the road, and well that didn’t happen. But perhaps my biggest dud of last week was my upset pick of Giants over the Raiders. Well that did not age well. Nope! Not even a little bit.
So, uh, let’s hope I can prognosticate a little better this week.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Panthers at Bears (-3)
After Bryce Young’s three interceptions last week, there isn’t much confidence that he will turn things around on a short week in Chicago, and if Fields plays this game could get ugly. But if it’s Tyson Bagent again, I’ll take the Bears in a low scoring snooze.
PICK – Bears 14 – Panthers 9
SUNDAY
((9:30AM Frankfurt, Germany))
Colts (-2) at Patriots
Mac Jones is out of the country Pats fans. Rejoice! This game is all about which team gets to 20 points first, cause uh, that should do it.
PICK – Colts 23 – Patriots 16
((1:00PM WINDOW))
Texans at Bengals (-6.5)
This should be a good game. Burrow was the number one pick back in the 2020 draft and Stroud should have been the top pick in this past years draft. Both play a similar style of game. They can lull you asleep with pinpoint underneath accuracy and then put the deep ball dagger in your side just when you least expect it. Stroud’s historic five touchdown performance last week against the Bucs should give him even more confidence that he can play against a Bengals team, that has won three in a row, and taken down some heavy hitters in recent weeks.
PICK – Bengals 26 – Texans 20
Saints (-3) at Vikings
Who would have thought that the Vikings would rise above .500 for the first time this season, after their starting QB Kirk Cousins went down to a season ending ACL injury the previous week. The Vikings decision to start Joshua Dobbs paid huge dividends in an upset win last week on the road over the Falcons. This week a tough Saints defense comes calling. Both teams actually reasserted themselves with key wins last week, but I like Derek Carr more than Dobbs, at least in this game.
PICK – Saints 23 – Vikings 17
Packers at Steelers (-3.5)
The Steelers just amaze me every week with how they manage to somehow grind out a gritty win. This week they get a Packers team that is hoping there win a week ago, over the Rams, is a sign of things to come. Meanwhile, Steelers WR-George Pickens spent most of the week thinking about playing somewhere else, other than Pittsburgh. I am sure a breakout game against the Packers will improve his mood quite considerably.
PICK – Steelers 24 – Packers 17
Titans at Buccaneers (-1)
Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel announced, early this week, that Will Levis will be the teams starting quarterback for the rest of the season, barring injury of course. Smart move! Still though, I think the rookie will find it tough to grab his first win on the road; against a Bucs team that still can’t believe how they let last week’s game slip away.
PICK – Buccaneers 26 – Titans 20
Niners (-3) at Jaguars
It’s hard for me the fathom that the Niners could lose their fourth straight game against the Jaguars. But the Jaguars are red hot and have won five in a row. Trevor Lawrence spoke this week how he would love to see his team put it all together for a signature win over the Niners. If Lawrence can get another big game on the ground from Travis Etienne, then I think we could very well see that signature win. The Niners defense hopes that newly acquired defensive end Chase Young will have something to say about that.
PICK – Niners 28 – Jaguars 21
Browns at Ravens (-6.5)
The Browns have really overachieved so far this season given their precarious quarterbacks situation. Deshaun Watson is once again good to go for the Browns and he will need to look like his old Houston self if the Browns will be able to pull off this upset; even with the Browns defense giving up the third lowest amount of points so far this season. The Ravens are just one of the best balanced teams in the league right now, and a rejuvenated Lamar Jackson has put himself back into the MVP conversation.
PICK – Ravens 28 – Browns 20
((4:00PM WINDOW))
Falcons (-2) at Cardinals
Word is that recently activated Kyler Murray is expected to make his first start this season under center for Arizona this Sunday. While that should give the Cardinals a nice boost, I like Falcons rookie running back Bijan Robinson to have a career game against a defense that is giving up the seventh most rushing yards in the NFL this season. Give me Atlanta by a nose.
PICK – Falcons 23 – Cardinals 21
Lions (-3) at Chargers
You know that when the Lions are favored against a quality opponent the road, they are not the same old Lions. The Lions will get a boost with leading rusher David Montgomery healthy, and with rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs having a breakout performance last week, expect the Lions to rely heavily on both backs, and not just in the run game, but in the passing game as well. That could be the difference, as the Chargers passing defense is the worst in the NFL. Still the Chargers have won two in a row and could climb above .500 with a win, but that passing defense has really hurt them; especially when they play against dynamic offenses.
PICK – Lions 27 – Chargers 23
Giants at Cowboys (-17)
There’s not much to say here, except that un-drafted rookie Tommy DeVito will be making his first career start (playing in just his second career game) against the Dallas Cowboys. DeVito did manage to throw his first career touchdown last week against the Raiders, but he also threw his first two career interceptions. Expect more of the later this week, on the road, against the Cowboys.
PICK – Cowboys 38 – Giants 10
Commanders at Seahawks (-6)
Sam Howell had a moment last week against the Patriots and did something few rookies have down historically against Belichick – win. Ok so Howell isn’t a true rookie, but after missing all but one game last season, he is having himself quite the bounce back year. His passing yards (2,471) and touchdowns (14) are both well inside the top ten, and only his nine interceptions diminish his stat line. The Seahawks are always tough to beat at home and their defense is really starting to hit their stride. Expect the Seahawks to do, what most every other team has done too Howell, bring pressure. The difference in this game could come down to whether the ‘Hawks can get home enough on those pressures.
PICK – Seahawks 22 – Commanders 17
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Jets at Raiders (-1)
If only the Raiders could fire their head coach every week. The Raiders looked like a completely different team a week ago against the Giants. The 30 points they put up against New York was the most this season; since the 21 they put up on the Patriots back in week six. The other New York teams defense is a little better though. Ok so it’s a lot better. Still, the Raiders have to be happy with what rookie QB Aidan O’Connell gave them last week. A nice conservative, mistake free game, that relied heavily on the feet of running back Josh Jacobs, who had 98-yards and 2 touchdowns. Speaking of which, Jacobs has sprung back to life in his last two games, after a brutal start to the season. He has three touchdowns over his last two games, and is running with more authority than he did at the start of the season. For the Jets it’s another game where they will be at the mercy of what their quarterback Zach Wilson can give them. Can he manage the game properly and avoid the costly turnovers? If he can, the Jets should hang around, in what I see as a low scoring defensive battle.
PICK – Raiders 17 – Jets 13
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Broncos at Bills (-7)
This game isn’t quite the “get well” game it looked like on paper back in week three or four. The Broncos have played better in their last two games and come in riding a modest two game winning streak. The Bills really need not full around too long with the scrappy Broncos, as they desperately need a win here. Because after the Broncos and the Jets next week, they get the Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys in successive weeks, and two of those games are on the road. It’s hard to call a game against the Broncos a “must win”, but we are kinda walking out onto the thinner ice here folks.
PICK – Bills 26 – Broncos 17
