By Matt Stuart | Published | 1 Comment
Oh boy. Well this is awkward. I mean my picks last week were terrible. I mean Ok they weren’t completely terrible, but more like stale pizza on a cold January morning terrible. I owe several teams and even a few players an apology. First off, I would like to apologize to the Ravens for even suggesting that the Lions were going to upset them. My pick from last week, Lions over Ravens, aged well for only a few lonely hours and died a quick agonizing death. The Ravens didn’t just prove me wrong, they flat out reached down into my very soul and squeezed it to make sure that I knew how very wrong I was. The Ravens thoroughly pounded the Lions, leaving absolutely no doubt as to who the best team was and making it clear that they are top contenders in the AFC.
The next team I wanted to apologize to are the Patriots and their QB Mac Jones. I had long ago buried Mac Jones, but to have thought that the Bills were a two touchdown favorite on the road in Foxborough was misguided to say the least. The Patriots picked a fine week to play their best and most complete game of the season – in upsetting the Bills. There much maligned QB, Jones, had a lot to do with that. Mac Jones played not only the best game of the season, he actually surprised me in being able to almost completely block the very loud noise and heavy criticism that he has faced almost all season long and deliver a brilliant clutch win. It was the best finish of his career and had to feel good for a QB that hasn’t had a lot to feel good about.
Anyway I was wrong big time last week. While I got my Jaguars, Bears and Browns picks right (golf clap), I completely whiffed on my Dolphins, Niners and Commanders picks. The fact that the Dolphins, Niners, Bills and Lions all went down in the same week just goes to show you that the NFL, week to week, remains unpredictable.
So uh, I guess, I will give it a little better shot this week.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Bucs vs Bills
The Bills lost last week because they could not run the football. 81 yards on the ground is just not going to cut it and once again the Bills put too much on the shoulders of their quarterback Josh Allen. The Bills now get a testy Bucs team that has played a lot better than I thought they would. If the Bills lose this game, Bills mafia might send Ken Dorsey through a table.
PICK – Bills 31 – Bucs 17
SUNDAY
((1:00 PM Window))
Rams vs Cowboys
The Rams badly need a win here after a lifeless 4th quarter last week against the Steelers. The Cowboys are entering a critical point in their schedule, in which they could distance themselves from the rest of the NFC wild card contenders and keep close contact on the Eagles, or they could lay another egg. I could really go either way on this game.
PICK – Cowboys 24 – Rams 17
Vikings vs Packers
Look out NFL the Vikings are finally reaping the benefits of Kirk Cousins amazing season and they are finally starting to win those one possession games like they did so often last year. The Vikings are on a nice little two game winning streak and come in flying high after a huge win over the Niners. The Packers, meanwhile, have lost three in a row after a nice 2-1 start to the season. Vikings should feel confident that they are playing their best football at the right time, as they look to reach the .500 mark and possibly save their season.
PICK – Vikings 24 – Packers 13
Falcons vs Titans
The Falcons somehow managed to beat the Bucs last week, despite their QB fumbling the football three times in the red zone, which I am not sure if that says more about how lucky the Falcons have been this season, or simply how inept the Bucs have been lately. The Titans have a QB quandry at the moment, with Tannehill leaving, due to injury, last week late in the 3rd quarter. This is one of those games where we have no idea who will start and finish at QB for the Titans and have low expectations for Falcons QB Desmond Ridder. I’m nervous with this pick, but I am cautiously optimistic that the Falcons can snatch another important road win.
PICK – Falcons 21 – Titans 17
Saints vs Colts
The Saints have lost two in a row and their QB Derek Carr seemed to show plenty of frustration a week when several of his wideouts ran some questionable routs. The Saints know though that they are still in a winnable division and get a banged up Colts team coming off a devastating and controversial loss a week ago against the Browns. The Colts should be a little angry coming into this game, but so should the Saints. I guess whomever is angriest wins.
PICK – Colts 21 – Saints 16
Patriots vs Dolphins
This game suddenly looks a lot different than it did a few weeks ago after both teams surprising week 7 efforts. The Patriots upset of the Bills showed that when they play within themselves they are still a dangerous team. The Dolphins showed that they still cannot figure out great defenses. Well, here we go again. The Dolphins high powered offense meets a vey good and getting better Pats defense. A win here for the Pats changes their season outlook tremendously, but so does a Dolphins loss. If the Dolphins offense looks pedestrian here again against a top defense and they lose, it will bring those uncomfortable questions about how they cannot beat good teams or at least good defenses back into the spotlight.
PICK – Dolphins 24 – Patriots 21
Jets vs Giants
The Jets just continue to surprise me. Their signature win of the season, before their bye week against the Eagles, has them sitting at 3-3 and in position to still save their season, and the fact that they have now found something that works for QB Zach Wilson is very encouraging. The Giants got a win last week against the suddenly ice cold Commanders with backup QB Tyrod Taylor filling in for a still injured Daniel Jones. The battle for New York isn’t as compelling as it could have been, if these two teams were meeting their lofty pre-season expectations this season, but this game should at the very least be fun to watch.
PICK – Jets 17 – Giants 13
Jaguars vs Steelers
The Jaguars have won four in a row and are starting to separate in a less than competitive AFC South. A win here would match their five game winning streak from the end of last season. The Steelers did exactly what I predicted that they would do a week ago on the road against the Rams, they hung around long enough to steal a win. This is tough game to pick because I feel that the Jags are clearly the better team, but the Steelers just have a knack for pulling a victory through a small hole. Hmm. I’m going to stay with the hot team here in the Jags, but have a feeling that I will be regretting this pick come Monday morning.
PICK – Jaguars 23 – Steelers 20
Eagles vs Commanders
The Eagles impressed me in how their defense did a good job in mostly containing that high powered Miami offense last week. This week they should have an easier time against the free falling Commanders.
PICK – Eagles 28 – Commanders 13
Texans vs Panthers
This is only a battle of the top two QB’s from this past April draft on paper. In reality, it’s not much of a battle at all. Stroud is simply lightyears ahead of Young and an already forgettable season for the Panthers will get even worse. Welcome to 0-7 Panthers fans.
PICK – Texans 27 – Panthers 13
((4:00 PM Window))
Browns vs Seahawks
I’m not sure exactly what is going on in Cleveland with QB DeShaun Watson. Watson was finally cleared to start last week against the Colts, after missing his previous start, only to sit most of the second half with a concussion, even though he was cleared of a concussion through the protocol. Watson has gone from answering questions about the quality of his play, to now simply whether he will play. The Seahawks continue to take care of business, even if they haven’t exactly dominated anyone this season. This game should be close and feels like a late FG could sway this game.
PICK – Seahawks 17 – Browns 14
Chiefs vs Broncos
The Broncos haven’t beat the Chiefs since week two of the 2015 NFL season. That’s 16 straight loses. It’s not just that the Chiefs are the better team, they clearly are. It’s that the Broncos are so hard to predict from one week to the next that’s it’s almost pointless to extrapolate anything from their victory two week’s ago over the Packers. Will the Broncos defense show up and at least give them a chance against the Chiefs and can the Broncos offense sustain drives. The Chiefs, meanwhile, just need to avoid mistakes that could keep the Broncos in the game. I see no reason the streak ends. Make it 0-17 for the Broncos.
PICK – Chiefs 26 – Broncos 17
Ravens vs Cardinals
Baltimore looked on fire last week and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson had the kind of game that reminds you of how special of a player he is. The Ravens complete dismantling of the Lions a week ago really surprised me and showed that Baltimore has plenty of elite playmakers to contend in the AFC. The Cardinals are scrappy, but not much else. Lamar could stay hot and the Ravens should be too much for the Cardinals to handle.
PICK – Ravens 27 – Cardinals 17
Bengals vs Niners
The Niners looked like the best team in the NFL just two weeks ago, now they don’t even look like the best team in their own conference. The Niners have lost two in a row and while they haven’t played terrible, they have committed bad turnovers and missed critical FG kicks in both of those loses. The Bengals now have a mostly healthy Joe Burrow and two wins in a row in their hip pocket. Can the Niners really drop three in a row. Can the Bengals win three in a row. I guess that’s why they will play the game.
PICK – Niners 23 – Bengals 17
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Bears vs Chargers
Bears backup QB Tyson Bagent acquitted himself quite well last week getting the first win of his career, in his first start, and not too many QB’s can say that. Meanwhile for the Chargers, things just continue to sputter and sputter like a car that is missing a cylinder or two. At 2-4 things seem to be slipping away for the Chargers and a loss here to the Bears could mean that some changes might be on the way. The Chargers should win this one, but I honestly don’t have a lot of faith that they will.
PICK – Chargers 24 – Bears 16
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Raiders vs Lions
Both teams got lit up a week ago, but the Raiders loss to the Bears was, at times, kind of embarrassing. The Lions had their worst game of the season last week on the road against the Ravens, but they should be in a much better position to get back on track and back in the win column against the Raiders. The Lions are also looking to get more production out of their pass catchers, especially from Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams. The Lions are at home and would like to get off to a hot start and an early lead so that they can use that run game to their advantage; something that they were not able to do a week ago against the Ravens.
PICK – Lions 27 – Raiders 17
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