By Matt Stuart | Published | No Comments
This week features huge divisional games that will go a long way to determining who makes the playoffs and where those teams that do make the playoffs will be seeded. From Buccaneers vs Falcons, to Eagles vs Cowboys , this week’s slate of games should be entertaining and filled with plenty of nail biting.
Last week was rough as I managed to just eke out a 7-6 record. My biggest misses were Jaguars over the Bengals, Chiefs over the Packers, Eagles over the Niners, and I am swearing off picking the Steelers to win any more game this year. Yeah I think I am even going to pick the dreadful Patriots to beat them on the first game of the week.
So here we go.
Patriots at Steelers ( -5.5)
The odds makers don’t have a lot of faith in either of these offenses. You have two backup quarterbacks going at it on a short week and the Patriots have been especially anemic on offense, as they have scored just 13 points in their last three games. So yeah, not a lot of faith in the offenses. The Patriots have benched their starter Mac Jones and switched to last seasons fourth round pick in Bailey Zappe, you know the guy they have released twice from the team. Then there is whatever Mitch Trubisky has left in the tank.
When two offense stink, I look to the other side of the ball. The Patriots defense has played at 1985 Bears levels over the last three weeks and the Steelers defense has been pretty lights out as well, giving up just a tad over 19 points per game this season, even less over their last three game stretch. The Steelers are getting a very generous five and half points at home here and I think that’s a little too generous. In fact, I don’t have much faith in the Steelers to win or cover here. While I know I will regret picking the Pats to pull this upset, I just have to imagine that there were more than a few heart to heart speeches in the Pats locker room after they scored zero points against one of the worst defenses in the NFL a week ago. So I guess I will take the Pats.
PICK – Patriots 17 – Steelers 14
Buccaneers at Falcons ( -2.5)
I still believe that the Falcons have the best team in this woeful division. I would like to believe more in the Falcons prospects of going on a nice little run over these remaining five weeks and putting this division away, but Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder is the reason I cannot bring myself to fully believe in those prospects. Ridder has simply been too inconsistent this season and the Falcons defense, more times than not, has had to pick up too much of the slack. Still I like Ridder to find some good shots down the field against this Bucs secondary that is giving up the fifth most passing yards per game. If the Bucs do pull the upset here, they will need another huge game from wide receiver Mike Evans, who has made a nice career against burning the Falcons secondary in the past.
PICK – Falcons 23 – Buccaneers 17
Lions ( -3) at Bears
The Lions defense was expected to be their safety blanket and strongest unit coming into the season. Things have not quite gone that way to plan for much of this season. In fact, over the last four weeks, or since coming off their bye in week nine, the Lions defense has been more of a liability than an asset. Last week was nearly a disaster for the Lions, as they nearly squandered a 24-7 half time lead, and had to simply hang on against a Saints offense that had been struggling on offense mightily for most of this season. So what happens this week against the Bears. These two teems played each other just three weeks ago (two games ago with the Bears getting a late season bye week last week). That was field first game back since missing four weeks with a thumb injury. In that game Lions quarterback Jarred Goff nearly sunk his team with three interceptions, but the Lions pulled out a com from behind 31-26 win at home. Goff has been very up and down over the last several weeks, while Fields had been just average with one total touchdown since returning.
Detroit defense is simply going to have to play better this week or they will once again be staring down the uncomfortable prospects of a late season upset. The Lions defense will of course want to limit what Fields can do on the ground and make him beat them with his arm. At the end of the day the team that can get a little more from their defense should win this game.
PICK – Lions 26 – Bears 20
Colts at Bengals ( -2.5)
Last week Bengals backup quarterback Jake Browning stepped up big time filling in for inured quarterback Joe Burrow, and his gutsy performance and clutch play, especially late in the game against the Jaguars, earned the rookie his first career win. Now the Colts roll into town on a four game winning streak and their offense has come alive in recent weeks with their backup quarterback Gardner Minshew having his best performance of the season last week, throwing for 312 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans. The Colts just keep sticking it to their detractors and find ways to win games. This game could go a long way to determine which of these two teams can get into the playoffs. I like the Colts to keep winning, in an upset here on the road.
PICK – Colts 23 – Bengals 17
Jaguars at Browns ( -3)
The Jaguars had a rough Thursday night a week ago against Cincinnati. Not only did they lose the game in OT, they also saw their quarterback Trevor Lawrence go down late in the game with what has been diagnosed as a high ankle sprain. There is no official time table on when Lawrence will return, but he obviously will not play in this game against the Browns. Instead, the Jaguars will roll with C.J. No, not the Stroud vintage, but the slightly less pallet pleasing Beathard vintage. Cleveland, on the other hand, is rolling with the ageless Joe Flacco. Uncle Joe was decent last week on the road against the Rams, but unfortunately for Flacco, the Rams appear to be morphing slowly back to the elite offense that saw them win a Super Bowl three seasons ago. Flacco obviously has the experience, and the better defense and yeah probably also the better roster, but because I am going out on a lot of limbs this week, lets take one more upset for the road.
PICK – Jaguars 20 – Browns 16
Panthers at Saints ( -6)
Look neither of these teams are good. The Saints are very much alive in the NFC South division, but that speaks more to the lackluster prospects of the other teams inside the division, than it does the quality of this Saints team. Saints quarterback Derek Carr was booed heavily last week by Saints fans, and after taking a hit that knocked him out of the game late with a concussion, there was some concern as to whether Carr would or should start this week. But Carr passed the concussion protocol and he is all set to go. If this were any other opponent, other than the Panthers, the Saints might have considered benching Carr for Hill or Winston. But the Panthers offense is the worst in the NFL and so is their first round bust quarterback.
PICK – Saints 24 – Panthers 6
Texans ( -3.5) at Jets
The Jets released quarterback Tim Boyle earlier in the week, after the offense mustered just 8 points at home against the Falcons. There was much gossip and rumors coming out of New York this week that Zach Wilson did not want to go back out there and quarterback for the Jets. Wilson denied those reports and Aaron Rodgers chastised the organization for leaking such rumors. All this means is that once again the Jets have a quarterback problem. Nonetheless, Wilson is your starter. The Texans have no such problems at the quarterback position. C.J. Stroud now leads the NFL in passing yards and has put himself firmly into the MVP conversation.
The Jets will keep it close, for a while, but I like Stroud too much to give any real consideration to the idea that Wilson will be able to to do enough to lead the Jets to an upset.
PICK. – Texans 24 – Jets 13
Rams at Ravens ( -7)
The Rams are hefty underdogs on the road here against the Ravens. And look I get it, the Ravens are extremely well balanced on both sides of the ball. When the Lamar Jackson is at his best, the Ravens really are the best team in the AFC. Problem is that Jackson’s last five starts have been just sort of meh, if I am being honest. Since his shellacking of the Lions in week seven, where he threw for three touchdowns and ran for another, while throwing for over 350 yards, Jackson has thrown just five touchdowns since and he hasn’t had a rushing touchdown since that game against the Lions. Oh yeah and he also has had just two games in that five game stretch where he has thrown for more than 200 yards. So yeah not ground shaking production.
The Rams, on the other hand, have been on a nice quiet three game winning streak, and have had an offensive renaissance over their last two games, where they have scored 73 points against the Cardinals and Browns. Look I am not saying that the Ravens are not the better team, they are. I am also not saying that you should bench Jackson if he is in your fantasy league. I guess all I am really saying is that I think a full touchdown for the Ravens is a bit much. That’s it. That’s all I am saying.
PICK – Ravens 26 – Rams 23
Vikings ( -3) at Raiders
The Vikings are still, crazy as it sounds, in the playoff mix. If the season ended today they would be in ,as the nFC’s sixth seed. Unfortunately for the Vikings, the season does not end today. The Vikings find themselves in a real jumbled mess with six other teams that are either tied at six wins a piece, or just a game back at five wins. That means that the Vikings have no margin for error. The Vikings are counting on backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs to keep them in the playoff hunt and his job should get easier with a healthy Justin Jefferson now back in the mix.
The Raiders have dropped their last two games, after winning two in a row in the immediacy of firing their head coach Josh McDaniels mid-season. The Vikings are desperate for a win on the road, but the Raiders will not go down without a fight. Expect a close one, decided in the closing seconds by a field goal.
PICK – Vikings 24 – Raiders 21
Seahawks at Niners ( -13.5)
As long as the Niners avoid the typical letdown of emotions after a big win in the previous week this game should not be all that close. The Niners just have way to much firepower on both sides of the ball, and the Seahawks are simply in free fall, having lost their last three games, and hanging on by a tiny thread in the NFC wild card race.
Pick – Niners 30 – Seahawks 13
Bills at Chiefs ( -1)
This game doesn’t quite feel as big as it has the last couple of meetings, as the Bills are currently outside of the AFC playoff picture. But make no mistake, this game still has plenty riding on it and it is still one of the best non-divisional rivalries that the NFL has going for itself right now. With that in mind, the Bills are obviously desperate, as a loss here would all but eliminate them from winning their fourth straight AFC East title and would also significantly hamper their wild card playoff prospects as well.
The Chiefs suddenly look beatable and have dropped two of their last three games. This will arguably be the best quarterback though that the Chiefs defense will face the rest of the way. so they should still be fine in terms of winning the AFC West even with a loss. But the Chiefs are a team that has reached a level where the Super Bowl is their only real goal each season. The Chiefs have not had to leave the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium since the Mahomes/Reid era officially began in 2018. A loss though here to the Bills, could very well make that an uncomfortable reality though for these Chiefs.
PICK – Bills 24 – Chiefs 20
Broncos at Chargers ( -2.5)
The Broncos has been the hottest team in the AFC, winning five straight, until they were cooled off last week by those darn Texans. This week presents an easier task. The Broncos may not be favored on the road, but they should have a chance to score points on a terrible Chargers defense. Of course I said that last week in regards to the Patriots and they put up a goose egg. Still I think Russell Wilson bounces back here and should get at least a couple of touchdowns through the air.
The real question here is how the Chargers respond. I mean sure they got a win on the road against New England, but that’s like a dad dunking on his 10 year old child. I mean sure it’s something, but not a real accomplishment. I picture this game as being fairly low scoring and that should give the Broncos at least a fighting chance to pull the upset.
PICK – Chargers 20 – Broncos 16
Eagles at Cowboys ( -3.5)
The Cowboys know that if they are going to do it, that is finally make some real noise in the playoffs and have a real shot at reaching the Super Bowl, they almost certainly need to win their division. The Cowboys prospects of beating BOTH the Eagles and Niners on the road are just not practical, IMO. So here it is. The rematch. The Cowboys lost by five points on the road back in their first game back in week nine. The Cowboys since that loss, have won four in a row and have outscored their opponents 167 to 72. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has thrown 13 touchdowns to just one interception in those last four games and despite the amazing season Nines quarterback Brock Purdy is enjoying, would be my pick for MVP.
The Eagles are coming off, clearly, their worst game of the season. The Eagles were thoroughly outmatched and outplayed a week against the Niners. But then again the same thing happened to the Cowboys when they played the Niners earlier this season. So it’s hard to draw too much from that game last week. Still though the Eagles have had a brutal stretch of game over their last four opponents and going 3-1 against the likes of the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills and Niners would be considered the highlight of the season for any other team. To me this game comes down to which offense doesn’t make big mistakes. That is, which quarterback can take care of the ball the best. Prescott has been best in that category when you compare these two quarterbacks head to head and I think that is what should be just enough to get the Cowboys a win.
PICK – Cowboys 27 – Eagles 21
Titans at Dolphins ( -13)
This is the second largest points spread of the week and it figures to be tough leading for a banged up Titans team. Titans quarterback Will Levis has struggled to find the magic that was on display in his first career start against Atlanta – way back in week 8. He will probably have an equally tough struggle this week against a Dolphins defense that is getting better and better each week. The Dolphins offense continues to spread the ball all over the field, from Tyreek Hill to Jaylen Waddle in the passing game, and DeVon Achane and Raheem Mostert just as potent in the run game, it’s just almost impossible to stop the Dolphins offense.
PICK – Dolphins 30 – Titans 20
Packers ( -6.5) at Giants
The Packers probably don’t have enough games left to catch the Lions, as they sit a full three games back with just five to go. But the Packers could arguably be the best team in the AFC North, at least right now. The Packers huge win last week against the Chiefs got them back to the .500 mark and they control their own destiny to reach the playoffs, as a wild card team, if they win out.
The Giants have been an incredible story since turning the reigns over to quarterback Tommy DeVito. But this feels like a mis-match for a Giants offense that is still not scoring many points and for a defense that is giving up just over 24 points per game.
PICK – Packers 24 – Giants 13
