By Matt Stuart | Published | No Comments
The Dolphins picked a bad time to give up a 14 point lead late in the fourth quarter in last night’s game against the Titans. Had Miami held on to win last night, they would have moved to 10-3 on the season, and would have 83% chance to reach the playoffs, after the loss the Dolphins now have just 63% chance to reach the playoffs, based off computer simulated results of the final four games of their schedule.
The Dolphins knew when the schedule was released back in April that their final four games of the season were going to be a crucible, a murders row of sorts. The Dolphins next four games are against the Jets, Cowboys, Ravens and Bills. That is just a brutal remaining schedule for the Dolphins, which is what makes their loss last night to the Titans even more hard to swallow.
Still as bad as last night loss to Tennessee was for Miami, the loss doesn’t hurt the Dolphins…yet! That’s because the Dolphins still control their own destiny, both in terms of winning the AFC Eat and earning the top seed in the AFC playoffs. If the Dolphins win out, they will win the AFC East, regardless of what Buffalo does in their other three remaining games. The Dolphins would also hold the tie breaker over Baltimore, even if the Ravens win their other three games by virtue of having a head to head win.
But just what are the chances that the Dolphins can win out. Better yet what chances do the computers and advance metrics give the Dolphins of actually still making the playoffs. Let’s take a look.
Advance data metrics gives the Dolphins just an 11% chance to win out, a 24% chance to win three out of four, a 52% chance to split their four remaining games, and a 49% chance to lose all four of their remaining games. Did you catch that. The computers believe the Dolphins have an almost equal shot at losing all of their remaining games as they do splitting their four remaining games.
The only good news for Miami, is that they will play three of their last four games at home, where they had been unbeaten before their stunning collapse last night. The Jets, Cowboys and Bills are all home affairs. The Dolphins travel to Baltimore in week 17. It’s good that the Dolphins get the Cowboys at home, since nobody has come within 20 points of beating Dallas at their home.
Let’s take a look at a few scenarios that could play out and see just how likely it is that the Dolphins could unthinkably be left out of the playoffs.
Obviously as mentioned above the Dolphins still control their own destiny. Win out and the division title is theirs, as is the AFC’s top seed.
Win three of out the remaining four games. Assuming that the Dolphins can beat the Jets, certainly not a gimme game when you consider they just lost to the Titans last night, the Dolphins would need to win two of their final three agist the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills. This scenario would still give the Dolphins the AFC East title, but it would probably not get them the top seed. In order to secure that under this scenario, the Dolphins would need to beat the Bills and Ravens and lose to the Cowboys. Then Miami, would need the Ravens to lose at least one more game and would also need Kansas City to lose at least one more game, as the Chiefs hold a head-to-head win over the Dolphins.
Still though, under this scenario the Dolphins would still be sitting fairly pretty as they would at least guarantee themselves one home playoff game.
Split their remaining four games. That may not be good enough to win the division, but would lock them into the wild card field, if the Steelers or Colts drop just one of their remaining four games. Still though things could dicey if the Dolphins wind up at 11-6 with three or more other teams. The only way the Dolphins could still win the division under this scenario, would be for the Dolphins to beat the Bills at home to close the season and win one of their other three remaining games.
Win just one of their four remaining games. Under this scenario the Dolphins would no longer control their own destiny. They would need a lot of help. With six teams already sitting at 7-6 going into the final four weeks of the season, and of course just three wild card playoff spots up for grabs, the Dolphins would need five of those six teams to drop at least one game. Those six teams would include, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Houston, Denver and Cincinnati. The good news is that Cincinnati and Pittsburgh still have to play each other, and baring a tie, one of those teams would lose. Indianapolis also plays Pittsburgh next Saturday afternoon and Indianapolis squares off against Houston to conclude their season.
Still though, under this scenario, the Dolphins would need an awful lot of things to go their way, and that’s not even beginning to factor in complicated tie breakers.
Dolphins lose all four of their remaining games. The Dolphins would finish 9-8. The Dolphins path to winning the division under this scenario would require the Bills to lose three out of their four remaining games, plus the New York Jets would need to lose one of their three remaining games as well. As for the wild card race, the Dolphins would again need at least five of the teams that are 7-6 to lose three of their four final games and would need the Chargers, Raiders and Titans to lose at least one game. While not impossible, it would take an extraordinary amount of dominoes that would all have to fall precisely right for the Dolphins to reach the playoffs.
The Dolphins will at least finally get that opportunity to show that they can beat good teams and teams with a winning record, something that they have been criticized for not being able to do so far this season. If the Dolphins come out of this pressure cooker of a final stretch with a winning record, they will certainly be battle tested and ready to go for the playoffs. At the very least, the Dolphins are a going to find out, over the next four weeks, just how well they measure up against thee of the leagues elite teams.
