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The Packers are the first seven seed to advance to the divisional round since the playoff field was expanded in 2021. As such there isn’t much historical data to go by here. The Packers were the last team to clinch a playoff spot in the NFC, but they are the last wild card team still standing. Go figure. Green Bay has seen quarterback Jordan Love grow more comfortable in his role as the starting quarterback through each week of the regular season, but few could have imagined that he would out duel Cowboys QB Dak Prescott last week on the road.
It’s not surprising to the Packers though, as Love has a calm and cool demeanor that makes it difficult for opposing defenses to rattle him too much. He will need to play that way Saturday night as he faces the NFC’s top defense in the San Francisco 49ers.
Love finished top ten in almost every statistical category this season. His 4,149 yards was seventh best. His 32 touchdowns were second only to Dak Prescott and he threw just 11 interceptions.
The Packers defense finished tenth in scoring, giving up just over 20 points per game, while their offense scored, on average, just over 22 points per game. Those are some thin margins that the Packers played with this season, but they made it work.
The big question now, is will it work this week against the 49ers.
The 49ers defense is as good as it gets in the NFC. Linebacker Fred Warner was a consensus first team All Pro this season. Warner is a disruptor, not just in the run game, but his coverage skills are top notch as well. Warner finished the regular season with 132 total tackles and four interceptions. The Niners defense will look to get pressure on Love and force him to get rid of the ball quickly. That has been the 49ers recipe for success on defense all season long and it’s hard to argue with the results.
The 49ers QB Brock Purdy completed his second season and elevated his game to a new level this year. Purdy is likely to get serious consideration for MVP this season, and it’s not hard to see why. His 4.280 passing yards were fifth best in the NFL this season. His 32 touchdowns were good enough for third and he led the league in passer rating.
Purdy of course remembers last seasons playoffs very well. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, against the Philadelphia Eagles, he exited the game in second quarter after injuring his throwing shoulder in the NFC Championship game. Purdy is looking to take his team back to the Championship game again this season, with only the Packers standing in his way.
One thing that will be critical for the Packers as they try and pull the upset is to get pressure on Purdy. When opposing defenses have rushed five or more players against Purdy, his passer rating is nearly 25 points lower. In three of the four loses this season, in which Purdy was the starting QB, he was pressured on at least 40% of his drop backs. The other loss, against the Minnesota Vikings, he was pressured on 36% of his drop backs.
Purdy threw just eleven interceptions this season, but nine of those picks came in those four losses, including four interceptions against the Baltimore Ravens.
Purdy will need his offensive line to give him time to throw and conversely the Packers defense will look to exploit that line to their advantage.
This game will very likely come down to which team can get after the quarterback. The Niners should have the advantage on both fronts in this game, but the Packers have some confidence they can make life miserable for Purdy, after doing the same a week ago against Prescott.
