By Matt Stuart | Published | No Comments
Thanksgiving week has arrived. In addition to the NFL’s usual three games on Thursday (Thanksgiving), the League has added its first ever game on Friday or “Black Friday”. That means for football fans, even you slackers that watch college football, it’s literally four days of non-stop games.
Last week I went 9-5. My Broncos pick over the Vikings was spot on as was my Ravens over Bengals. Though in fairness to the Bengals, that game could have shaped out differently if Bengals QB Joe Burrow doesn’t go out with an injury. I whiffed tough on quite a few games. My Seahawks and Chargers picks bottomed out and my faith in the Chiefs was, thanks to a couple of untimely drops, misplaced.
But with another crack at things this week, my luck is bound to improve. Hey at least I can be thankful for still having a winning record.
Packers at Lions ( -7.5) – 12:30 PM
The Lions did not look good last week against the Bears. But even with a terrible performance from quarterback Jarred Goff, for most of the game, the Lions have to feel good about how Goff and the team responded when it mattered most. The Packers may have saved their season with a key win a week ago over the Chargers, but I think the Lions should play better against a Packers team that has struggled to find consistency on offense.
PICK – Lions 24 – Packers 16
Commanders at Cowboys ( -13.5) – 4:30 PM
Sam Howell has been a singular bright spot for an otherwise bad Commanders team, but he draws a tough matchup on the road against a Cowboys defense that leads the league in pressure rate and is top five in sacks. The Cowboys could go on nice little run here over the next couple of weeks before their final divisional showdown against the Eagles.
PICK – Cowboys 27 – Commanders 17
Niners ( – 7) at Seahawks – 8:20 PM
The Seahawks suffered a really bad loss a week ago against the Rams. They will find it both real tough to get a win against the suddenly hot again Niners and also maintain their spot in the playoff hunt.
PICK – Niners 24 – Seahawks 18
Dolphins ( -8.5) at Jets – 3:00 PM
The Jets have finally shut down Zach Wilson for the season and Tim Boyle will get the start at quarterback. The Jets defense should keep the game close for a while, but the Dolphins defense will also look to build on a couple of impressive showings over the last few weeks. This will likely be another sloppy win for the Dolphins, but they just need wins right now.
PICK – Dolphins 20 – Jets 13
((1:00 PM WINDOW))
Saints at Falcons ( -1)
The oldest rivalry in the South renews in Atlanta this weekend. Neither of these teams offenses inspire much confidence at the moment and the Falcons are throwing quarterback Desmond Ridder back out there after he was benched over the last two games. When neither offense gives you much, I will pick the team with the better defense and that’s the Saints.
PICK – Saints 17 – Falcons 14
Steelers ( -1.5) at Bengals
Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett is running out of excuses, after the Steelers fired Matt Canada earlier in the week. The Steelers do have the better record and with the Bengals throwing rookie quarterback Jake Browning out there, I have just the tinniest amount of confidence that the Steelers can eke out a win.
PICK – Steelers 20 – Bengals 13
Panthers at Titans ( -3.5)
The Panthers are running out of winnable games fast here. The Titans offense doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence here either. I’m almost tempted to conclude that this game will end in 9-9 tie, but that’s against the rules. I guess I will take the home team, as at least Levis makes me feel better under center than Young.
PICK – Titans 16 – Panthers 10
Buccaneers at Colts ( – 2.5)
The Buccaneers once promising season seems to be slipping away thanks largely to a completely non-existent running game. The Colts have a running game, in theory, but their star running back Jonathon Taylor has yet to go over 100-yards since returning from IR in week seven. If this becomes Baker Mayfield in a shootout against Gardner Minshew, I will ride with Minshew by a nose.
PICK – Colts 28 – Buccaneers 23
Patriots ( -3.5) at Giants
To give you some idea of how bad things are in the other corner of New York. The Patriots haven’t even decided which mediocre quarterback they will trot out on Sunday, and yet the Patriots are still favored by three-and-half points on the road. Here’s the thing. Giants back-up quarterback Tommy DeVito actually looked good last week against the Commanders, throwing for 246-yards and three touchdowns. I can’t quite bring myself to think that DeVito will be able to put three touchdowns up against a Belichick coached defense, but I also can’t see how any Patriots quarterback can even put one touchdown up this week or any week. So I guess I will just flip a coin.
PICK – Patriots 20 – Giants 13
Jaguars ( -2) at Texans
This matchup wouldn’t have garnered much attention a few years ago, but this game is one of the best of the week and has plenty riding on it. The winner will likely have the inside track at winning the AFC South. Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has firmly placed himself in the MVP race this season and a win against the defending AFC South champions could go a long way into continuing that campaign.
PICK – Texans 21 – Jaguars 18
((4:00 PM WINDOW))
Browns at Broncos ( -1.5)
This game suddenly has playoff implications for both teams. Didn’t think I would say that a few short weeks ago. The Broncos have suddenly found their offense, as quarterback Russell Wilson is finally starting to play like the Super Bowl champ the Broncos hoped they would be getting when they traded for him. Meanwhile, the Browns season is now largely in the hands of rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who picked up his first career win last week against the Steelers. Both teams have inconsistent offenses, but have elite capable defenses. If this game is low scoring, which I think it will be, I like the Broncos chances to finally pull themselves above the .500 mark.
PICK – Broncos 20 – Browns 16
Rams ( -1.5) at Cardinals
The Rams are on the cusp of back-to-back losing seasons since winning the Super Bowl. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has struggled to stay healthy and play effectively for the Rams. The Cardinals just welcomed back their pro bowl QB Kyler Murray two weeks ago. Murray is 1-1 with a win over the Falcons and a loss to the Texans since his return. Both teams seem to be looking towards their own futures, but there is a game to be played, and in theory the Rams should win it.
PICK – Rams 20 – Cardinals 17
Chiefs ( – 8.5) at Raiders
The Chiefs literally let one slip through their fingers last Monday night against the Eagles. It was the first time the Chiefs had lost, following a bye, since Reid took over as the head coach of the Chiefs. The Raiders represent a chance for the Chiefs to get right, but this matchup has proven to be close over the last couple of years. So the Chiefs receivers will really need to help their QB by, you know, catching the ball.
PICK – Chiefs 24 – Raiders 17
Bills at Eagles (-3.5)
The Eagles face another tough test this week against the Bills. The Eagles, it could be agued, have the best collection of wins so far this season; including wins over the Cowboys, Chiefs and Dolphins. But with four straight games; including this one, against teams with winning records, they know they will continue to be tested. The Bills offense seemed to clicking once against last week in their win over the hapless Jets, but this game will show Bills fans whether their team is truly able to compete against the leagues best, and against a team they could face in the Super Bowl, if the Bills get that far. Should be a fun watch and should be close, but passing up the Eagles at home, seems a bit foolish.
PICK – Eagles 24 – Bills 20
Ravens ( -3.5) at Chargers
The Chargers season seems to be slipping away. It’s hard to imagine that they will be able to get back in the playoff hunt if they drop this game to the Ravens. The Ravens though are a little banged up and suffered a devastating loss to playmaker TE Mark Andrews, who is out for the season. If this game turns into a shootout, the Chargers could actually have a better chance at an upset, than if this becomes a more low scoring defensive struggle.
PICK – Ravens 24 – Chargers 20
Bears at Vikings ( -3.5)
The Vikings need a win here if they hope to keep pace in the NFC wild card playoff race. The Bears need a loss here if they still have fancies of getting two picks in the first five of next year’s draft. So you see there is a way both teams could get a win here.
PICK – Vikings 18 – Bears 14
