By Matt Stuart | Published | No Comments
Last week was my best week by far this season, as I went a robust 11-5. My only real head scratching pick was thinking the Patriots would knock off the Giants on the Road. And as bad as my faith was that the Patriots could even get average quarterback play against the Giants, the Patriots could have still managed to pull out a win in OT if their rookie kicker had hit a game tying field goal at the end of the fourth quarter.
Oh well!
This week I am sticking to my instincts and mostly sticking with the line favorites. I do think there will be a few upsets, as I have Titans, Broncos and Eagles as my upset picks for the week. So anyway here we go.
Seahawks at Cowboys ( – 9.5)
The Seahawks were embarrassed at home a week ago on Thanksgiving by the 49ers. But the Niners have embarrassed lots of teams this seasons, including the Cowboys. If Dallas still sees a path to the top seed and I am sure that they do, they will need to hold off what I think will be scrappy, throw the book out the window Seahawks. Seattle knows they probably have to win this game to stay in the playoff hunt and when you back Pete Carroll into a corner, he usually comes out fighting.
PICK – Cowboys 27 – Seahawks 23
Colts ( -1) at Titans
Gardner Minshew has filled in nicely for the Colts since their starting quarterback Anthony Richardson was lost for the season back in week four. Meanwhile, Titans quarterback Will Levis has gone 2-3 in his first five starts since taking over for Ryan Tannehill. I like the defenses a little more in this game than the offenses. So I will take the Titans in a close one at home.
PICK – Titans 20 – Colts 16
Chargers ( -5.5) at Patriots
The Chargers have lost three in a row and their playoff chances are currently hanging by a thread. They also have a tough stretch to finish out the season after this one against the Patriots. New England looks to simply finish out the string, as none of their quarterbacks are going to make much of a difference in their win prospects, in this game, or any game.
PICK – Chargers 24 – Patriots 10
Lions ( -4.5) at Saints
The Lions got worked over on Thanksgiving by a determined Packers team. This week they are on the road in what can be, traditionally, a tough environment to play in at the Superdome in New Orleans. The Saints missed a golden opportunity to take command of the weak NFC South a week ago in a loss in Atlanta. Both of these teams have struggled on both sides of the ball in recent weeks, but I have to think that talent should win out in a closer than expected one in New Orleans.
PICK – Lions 24 – Saints 21
Falcons ( -2) at Jets
The Jets have turned their season over to anyone but Zack Wilson and now that someone has become Tim Boyle. The Jets were hanging onto to slim playoff hopes a few weeks, back when they were 4-3. But their current four game losing streak has realistically extinguished those hopes. The Falcons are very much still alive in their quest to return to the playoffs for the first time in six seasons, and their win a week ago against the Saints has them in first place in the NFC South, albeit with a 5-6 record. Both of these quarterbacks have shown to be consistently erratic over their last couple starts and both QB’s have a tendency to turn the ball over. But if the Falcons can keep feeding that dominate running game, they should have enough to get a win here on the road.
PICK – Falcons 20 – Jets 15
Cardinals at Steelers ( -5)
The Cardinals have bottomed out since Kyler Murray returned as quarterback a few weeks ago. The Cardinals simply are void of the kind of talent that a team needs to be truly competitive at this level, and honestly the Cardinals can now just look ahead to the draft next season for an infuse of talent. Meanwhile, the Steelers are probably playing a little above their talent level, and seem to just find a way to win every week, even in circumstances where it appears that a win is not very likely. This game will probably be close for a while, but if Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett can play smartly and avoid the turnovers, the Steelers should pull away in the second half.
PICK – Steelers 23 – Cardinals 17
Dolphins ( -9.5) at Commanders
The Dolphins offense has fallen off a bit here in the second half of this season and their starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, has thrown five interceptions in his last five games. While turnovers will more than likely not be that critical to success in this game. Tua really needs to clean that up before the playoffs. The Commanders defense has let them down big-time so far this season and last week they fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. The Commanders should be able to put some points up, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they even take a lead for a while, but the Dolphins just have too much firepower for that ailing Commanders defense.
PICK – Dolphins 31 – Commanders 24
Broncos at Texans ( -3.5)
These two teams represent good surprise comeback seasons from a year ago and both are in playoff contention as we head into the final stretch of the season. Russell Wilson has played a lot better, as his chemistry with his offensive players and head coach Sean Payton seems to improve every week. No quarterback has played better in such a short amount of time though than Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud has already wrapped up offensive rookie of the year honors, and should he stay hot and lead his team to the playoffs, he should also get serious MVP consideration as well. This game could come down to which defense can contain the other teams quarterback, and while the Texans are favored, I am going to take a chance here and put my faith in the Broncos ability to play defense just a little better on this Sunday afternoon.
PICK – Broncos 23 – Texans 20
Panthers at Buccaneers ( -5)
The Panthers offense has been historically bad in almost all areas so far this season and that has led to Panthers owner David Tepper firing his head coach – Frank Reich, after the teams 1-10 start to the season. Even with the firing of Reich, it’s safe to say that the offense, and rookie quarterback Bryce Young, are not going to improve much until they receive a much needed talent infusion during the off-season. The Buccaneers once promising season has regressed over the last several weeks, and the Bucs are simply struggling to score points. Even when they have a nice day offensively, their defense seems to falter down the stretch. Teams that fire their head coaches mid-season tend to play with a little more urgency, and fire in the belly the following week, and I do expect that from the Panthers in this game, but I just think the more veteran Bucs should be able to pull this one out at the end.
PICK – Buccaneers 21 – Panthers 17
Browns at Rams ( -3.5)
The Rams looked like a different team a week ago against the Cardinals. The Rams offense looked like the same high powered offense that led them to the Super Bowl three seasons ago. Even better news for the Rams is that they have actually managed to put themselves back in the playoff hunt, thanks to their modest two game winning streak. The Browns are hoping that they can stay alive in their playoff hunt with rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson playing now full time for the injured Deshaun Watson. But the Browns offense faces a stiff challenge from a Rams defense that has played a lot better over the last three games. I like the Rams here at home.
PICK – Rams 24 – Browns 18
Niners ( -3) at Eagles
This is the game of the week, with all due respect to to the rest of this week’s slate. The Eagles believe that they are the best team in the NFC and its hard to really argue that. But no team has looked better over the last four weeks than the Niners. The Niners have the leagues top rated offense and defense and they have a serious bone to pick with the Eagles. The Niners players believe that they would have won last season’s NFC Championship game if their starting quarterback Brock Purdy had not injured his throwing shoulder in the first half. The Eagles believe that they were the better team, regardless, and that they would have won the game even if Purdy had played the full sixty minutes. There has been a lot of chirping from players, on both sides, since that game last January ended the Niners season and propelled the Eagles to the Super Bowl. While we cannot replay last years NFC Championship game, this is as close as we can get, at least for the regular season.
The Eagles offense has skirted through some rough waters as of late, but they have managed to keep winning. This game will likely come down to which quarterback can exploit the limited amount of space that the opposing team’s defense will fail to cover. Look for the Eagles defense to step up the pass rush in the hopes of making Purdy rely on his first read or two and not allow him to get too comfortable in the pocket. If the Eagles can do that, they might just be able to show, once and for all, that they simply are the better team.
PICK – Eagles 24 – Niners 23
Chiefs ( -6) at Packers
The Packers have turned their season around with two huge wins over the last two weeks. A win here for the Packers would give them a decent path to a wild card playoff spot as the season enters its final quarter. The Chiefs have looked a little shaky in their last two games, a stretch where they have gone 1-1. The Chiefs actually trailed by fourteen points for a good portion of the first half of last week’s game against the Raiders. If there is a chance for the upset here for the Packers, they will need to get out to the same kind of fast start that they did a week ago against the Lions. I think this game is close for two and a half quarters, but once again look for the Chiefs to make their signature second half adjustments and pull away late.
PICK – Chiefs 28 – Packers 20
Bengals at Jaguars ( -8.5)
It’s a shame that we will not get to see quarterbacks that went overall number one in back-to-back drafts, as the Bengals have lost their starting quarterback Joe Burrow for the season. The Jaguars are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and have gone 7-1 over an eight game stretch that has allowed them to take firm command of the AFC South. The Jaguars have a favorable schedule the rest of the way, as they only face one team with a winning record (Ravens) the rest of the season. The Jaguars have a real good shot at the top seed in the AFC and that could change the playoff picture significantly if the Jaguars can pull that off. First things first though, they need to take care of a Bengals team that has little to lose on the road.
PICK – Jaguars 26 – Bengals 17
